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Vietnam needs strong action to escape ‘middle-income trap’

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Standing by her pushcart hawking cassava cakes on Ho Chi Minh City’s Bui Thi Xuan Street, Anh laughs when she hears she is in the World Bank’s “middle income” bracket. A view of Le Loi Street in downtown HCMC.She earns more than VND30 million (US$1,630) a year against Vietnam’s 2008 per capita income of about [...]

Economy rebounds, but major challenges loom

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Despite the global crisis, last year can be seen as a successful year for Vietnam, with its GDP growing by 5.32%. However, there remain many big challenges the country faces in 2010. VnnNews - Despite the global crisis, last year can be seen as a successful year for Vietnam, with its GDP growing by 5.32 percent, [...]

Vietnam’s rice exports not much affected by AFTA

Vietnamese rice exporters will not be significantly affected by the AFTA, which zeroed out tariff on exports among six member countries of ASEAN, according to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development.

VnnNews - Vietnamese rice exporters will not be significantly affected by the ASEAN Free Trade Agreement (AFTA), which zeroed out tariff on exports among six member countries of the Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), effective on January 1 2010, according to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD).

The tariff reduction will not have much impact on Vietnamese rice production and trading as the countries does not have many rice export contracts with ASEAN countries, except for the Philippines, said deputy head of MARD’s Institute of Agriculture and Rural Development Policy and strategy.

Five other ASEAN member, including Vietnam, would apply the zero tax rates on the other members in 2015.

At that time, farmers would benefit from the lowered prices of fertilizers and other materials from ASEAN countries, Thi said, adding that the exporters should attach great importance to the improvement of the quality and the competitiveness of Vietnamese rice on regional and world markets,

Vo Tong Xuan, former rector of An Giang University, said Vietnam cannot meet demands of either the domestic or foreign markets as the areas under cultivation with high-quality rice varieties still remained limited.

Nguyen Van Dong, director of the Hau Giang provincial Department of Agriculture and Rural Development, meanwhile, attributed the poor quality of rice to the cultivation of too many hybrid varieties. The MARD, therefore, has directed provinces to focus on two or three key varieties for the 2009-2010 winter-spring crop.

Some provinces with favourable conditions would be able to grow high-yield varieties both for domestic consumption and export.

Hau Giang province would plant one or two high-quality rice varieties on an area of 20,000 ha out of the province’s total 82,000ha rice growing acreage for this year.

He also recommended the State invest in high-quality seed, better infrastructure for agricultural production, and a commodities trading floor for rice, adding that close cooperation among the States, enterprises, scientists and farmers would benefit growers, exporters and consumers.

It is not easy to forecast the rice export volumes and prices due to unpredictable factors like bad weather in other rice-growing countries, according to the Ministry of Industry and Trade.

This year, Vietnam has signed contract to export 2.3 million tonnes of rice to the Philippines by September. Exporters, however, found it difficult to expand their markets.

Last year, the country exported 6 million tonnes of rice, accounting for 15 percent of the world rice market. VOVNews/VNS

VietNamNet/VNS

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Staff demands fallen Indochina Airlines pay back salaries

Employees at Indochina Airlines, which had its license revoked last month for financial incompetence, hadn’t paid their salaries for months. 

On January 25, tens of Indochina staffers submitted proposals to the airlines’ leaders, asking for clear explanations as to why they hadn’t been paid. But the company did not respond, the newswire reported on Wednesday.

 

Indochina hasn’t pay hundreds of staffers salaries since last October and it owes each of them an estimated tens of millions of dong.

 

Disgruntled employees said were facing increasingly harsh complaints and verbal abuse from customers who couldn’t get their tickets refunded after the airlines’ license was withdrawn.

 

Local news website VnExpress recently reported that the airline had to refund 1,450 tickets worth nearly VND2 billion (US$108,000) for passengers who bought tickets for flights between January 26 and March 23.

 

VietNamNet had contacted key officials of the company about the staff’s complaints . But officials said they could not comment and they also had yet to receive several months’ salary.

 

Indochina Airlines General Director Ha Dung, meanwhile, couldn’t be reached, the newswire reported.

 

Opening its service in November 2008, Indochina had postponed a plan to resume flights several times since its service was suspended last November due to both technical and financial problems.

 

The Civil Aviation Administration last month revoked the company’s license, saying the carrier was no longer capable of maintaining its service.

 

According to the agency, Indochina still carried debts totaling VND30 billion ($1.6 million) to service providers.

 

VietNamNet/TN

 

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BUSINESS IN BRIEF 13/2

Malaysia to boost service exports to Vietnam; Travel agents booked solid for Tet; Investors snatch pre-Tet bargains   

The national flag carrier, Vietnam Airlines (VNA), will participate in 30 international tourism exhibitions this year.

 

It will also invite 70 foreign tourist and media delegations to conduct surveys and promote the image of Vietnam ’s tourism.

 

The company plans to buy a further 11 aircraft this year. It will also open a new route between Hanoi and Rangoon ( Myanmar ) next month.

 

At present, Vietnam Airlines has 57 aircraft.

 

Italian machinery industry seeks opportunities

 

A seminar on the Italian machinery manufacturing industry’s business and investment opportunities in Vietnam was held in Bologna, central Italy, from February 11-12.

 

The seminar, co-organised by the Italian Employers’ Federation (Confindustria) in Emilia Romagna and Vietnamese Embassy in Italy, aimed to create conditions for machinery manufacturers in Italy in general and Emilia Romagna region in particular to get more access to information on market demand and strengthen cooperation with Vietnamese partners.

 

Speaking at the seminar, Vietnamese Ambassador to Italy Dang Khanh Thoai highlighted Vietnam ’s investment attraction policy and the country’s large demand for the manufacturing industry, which plays an important role in the national industrialisation and modernisation process.

 

Thoai expressed his wish that Italian businesses will cooperate with Vietnamese partners in training high-quality workers as well as exchange production and management experiences. He said he hoped that Italian investors will participate in bids for Vietnam ’s large-scale industrial projects in the coming time.

 

The machinery manufacturing industry is one of the strengths of Emilia Romagna region, which boasts more than 13,000 small- and medium-sized enterprises operating in this field.

 

Italy ’s investment in Vietnam remains modest with 43 projects capitalised 162 million USD, ranking 33 rd among countries and territories investing in the country.

 

Supertanker carries oil to Van Phong Bay for first time

 

A new Vietnamese-registered supertanker on February 11 carrying nearly 100,000 tonnes of diesel fuel docked at Van Phong Bay in the south-central province of Khanh Hoa.

This is the Van Phong I’s first delivery to the Bay. The ship represents a US$47 million investment by the Vietnam National Petroleum Corporation.

 

The Vice Chairman of the Khanh Hoa provincial People’s Committee, Le Xuan Than, visited and congratulated the Van Phong I’s captain and crew and presented Tet gifts to them.

 

Soon, the Van Phong I will return to Kuwait to pick up a second shipment of oil and is scheduled to dock at Van Phong Bay again in early April.

 

Nine more oil shipments to Van Phong Bay are scheduled for this year, paying about VND2,500 billion to the state budget.

 

Local company exports ‘UFO’ toys to Japan

 

Tosy Robotics Joint Stock Company will ship the first container of 5,000 ‘unidentified flying object’ toys to Japan.

 

The company signed a contract worth US$400,000 to export 100,000 toys of this kind to its partners, Takara Tomy, which is Japan’s largest toy company.

 

Tosy Robotics has also been contracted to export a total of 700,000 UFO products to other countries this year, including the US, Germany and Japan

 

VietNamNet/VNA, VOV

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Post-crisis situation needs value-added response

The Government needs adopt an overall plan to restructure the economy to improve its efficiency and competitiveness in the post-crisis period. 

After more than a year of recession, the world’s economy may recover this year with a growth of around four percent, according to the latest forecasts.

 

The crisis and ensuing shrinkage of the world market had badly affected Vietnam, an export-oriented economy with low added-value and high outsourcing rates.

 

Corporation. Businesses have been advised to strengthen their presence in the domestic market and be less dependent on exports in order to maintain stable production and jobs. (Photo: Saigon Times)

 

However, owing to the Government’s timely and proper economic stimulus policies, the country has managed to overcome the crisis and gain a GDP growth of 5.32 percent last year.

 

Despite the recovery, the economy’s growth cannot be seen as sustainable, as it is largely based on extensive use of capital, cheap labor costs, outsourcing goods, and export of raw materials. It has not been based on products with high added-value that are also highly competitive. This reality can be seen in the imbalanced export structure, the high Incremental Capital - Output Rate (ICOR), and the low VA/GO rate (Value-added/Gross output) over the past several years.

 

Moreover, the country is now trying to maintain growth while trying to prevent a return of inflation and reduce the trade deficit that has weakened the country’s balance of payment.

 

If the situation cannot be improved soon, it may cause some macro-economic instability.  Therefore, we need to coordinate and harmonize, as soon as possible, our fiscal, monetary policy, consumer and foreign trade policies towards stabilizing macro economy this year. 

 

In the recent global financial crisis, many emerging economies have recovered early by effectively tapping into domestic markets to offset a reduction in exports and maintaining business and jobs.

 

Therefore, the exploitation of domestic markets has yet to be paid due attention in Vietnam. The Party Politburo has adopted a policy to encourage consumption of goods made in Vietnam to improve the situation.

 

It is a sound policy, but for it to be successful, businesses will need to rearrange their production structure, build brand names, and enhance product quality, thereby improving the competitive edge of not only of goods for exports, but also of goods for domestic consumption that have to compete with imported products.

 

To this end, the Government should offer businesses medium and long-term credit to help them expand their domestic market shares, renovate technology and create new products.

 

Improving competitiveness    

 

The termination of interest subsidy on short-term loans while continuing offering a two percent subsidy for medium and long-term loans for farmers and companies to boost agricultural production or alter their line of business is another sound policy.

 

To ensure that this policy is effective, the Government should take measures to assist commercial banks in mobilizing medium and long-term capital and improve the liquidity in the stock exchange.

 

In late 2009, the National Assembly and Government passed important financial and economic policies to support businesses in renovating technologies and production, developing high added value products for export, and seeking new markets. 

 

In the first quarter of 2010, when the global economy enters its post-crisis period, those policies will be stepped up to restructure the economy and enhance businesses’ competitive capability.

 

Although Vietnam’s exports accounts for more than 70 percent of the GDP, this should not be blamed for the economy’s vulnerability to world market fluctuations. Instead, the vulnerability has mainly come out of the structure of exports, in which raw materials and products with low added-value account for the most part.

 

In addition, the use of domestic materials in production of goods for export remains at a low level, weakening their competitiveness in terms of production cost. 

 

To sum up, rearranging the export structure, boosting the proportion of local materials used in production, developing hi-tech products, expanding both local and international markets are among the vital factors in ensuring Vietnam’s sustainable development.

 

By Dr. Tran Du Lich, a member of the National Assembly’s Economics Commitee and the former head of the Ho Chi Minh City Economics Institute

 

(Source: SGGP)

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Opening the door to tourism real estate

The Vietnamese tourism industry’s ongoing recovery is a good signal for investors to tap into the nation’s lucrative tourism real estate industry. Vietnam is not immune to the global economic crisis, as data released by Vietnam National Administration of Tourism (VNAT) showed that foreign tourist arrivals to the country last year were down by 10.9 per cent against 2008.

Kai Marcus Schröter, chief executive officer of Hanoi-based HTM Management Consultancy Company - which has provided hospitality and tourism services in Vietnam since 1998, said the slump in arrivals badly affected Vietnam’s tourism real estate sector in 2009.

“Our surveys revealed that, with few exceptions, particularly luxury hotels saw their average occupancy and room rates decrease by 15-40 per cent. The average occupancy in the major cities dropped to about 50 per cent,” said Schröter. He said the situation for some beach resorts had been milder as they experienced a strong increase in domestic tourism during the summer.

“For hotel developers, the global financial crisis and its impacts on tourism led to many smaller to mid-scale projects being put on hold. Some foreign investors withdrew completely and we saw a surge of domestic investors jumping in,” he said.

Sharing Schröter’s view, Ho Chi Minh City-based Celadon International Group chief executive officer Paul Stoll said 2009 was not a good year for Vietnam’s tourist industry due to the world’s financial crisis.

“The slump in foreign tourist arrivals partly led Vietnam’s tourism real estate market to slow down, badly affecting investors like us. What investors could do in 2008-2009 was mainly focusing on projects started in 2006 and 2007 so that they could be put into operation in 2009,” Stoll said.

“In 2009, there was little new investment in Vietnam’s tourism real estate market. The year also witnessed many projects in the country being delayed and cancelled,” he said. Schröter said many small hotel developers relied on overly optimistic expectations and cash flows arising from villa sales and high occupancy and room rates, which did not materialise.

“They reacted too slowly to the writing on the wall and signs of the upcoming economic crisis that began in early August, 2008. Many of these hotel projects were put on hold. Some were sold or even scrapped by the government with licences rightfully revoked,” Schröter said.

According to the Ministry of Planning and Investment’s Foreign Investment Agency, to date, there have been 300 foreign-invested tourism projects worth about $20 billion in Vietnam. In 2009, Vietnam’s tourism sector still attracted 32 newly-licensed and 8 projects increasing capital, worth total $8.8 billion. Meanwhile, there were 26 hotel and restaurant projects with registered capital of $9.12 billion in 2008.

Prospects for the Year of Tiger

But, things are now turning around. The number of tourist arrivals to the country in January, 2010 increased by 10.6 and 20.4 per cent against 2009’s December and January, respectively.

“This is a positive sign for Vietnam’s tourism real estate market,” Stoll said.

VNAT head Nguyen Van Tuan said the industry’s 2009 turnover was $3.78 billion, up by 9 per cent against 2008, thanks to the increase in the quantities of local tourists from 21 million in 2008 to 25 million in 2009 on the back of Vietnam’s tourism promotion programmes.

The VNAT optimistically said Vietnam would likely be visited by 4.5-4.6 million foreign tourists this year, up 18-21 per cent against 2009 and the number of local tourists in 2010 was expected to be 27-28 million. The industry’s turnover for 2010 is expected to reach $4.2 billion, up 7.1-11.4 per cent against 2009.

“Despite the global economic downturn, tourism is booming in Vietnam. The drop in tourist arrivals does not seem to deter investors from putting their bets on hotel and tourism developments in the country,” Schröter said.

“ Vietnam’s attractiveness is expressed clearly through the CB Richard Ellis Vietnam’s studies, which said 70 per cent coastal villas in Danang were bought before they were finished. This is an unusual trend in the world’s real estate market,” said Nguyen Trung Thanh, tourism management manager of Vung Tau International Tourism Service Company’s Vung Tau Intourco Hanoi Branch.

According to the VNAT’s Hotel Department, Vietnam is home to 10,900 hotels with 215,000 rooms. Of which there are 35 five-star hotels with 8,800 rooms, some 95 four-star hotels with over 11,600 rooms, some 184 three-star hotels with 13,168 rooms and 710 two-star hotels with 27,000 rooms. “ Vietnam’s number of four- and five-star hotels has multiplied over the past decade. At present, it still fails to meet the market’s increasing demand,” said Do Thi Hong Xoan, head of the department.

A golden age dawns

Stoll said Vietnam’s tourism real estate market faced a golden future. “That’s why we are developing significant tourism projects in all categories from three- to five-star hotels and resorts in many provinces in Vietnam such as Celadon Palace Hotel in Hue city, Imperial Hotel in Ba Ria-Vung Tau province, Binh Thuan province-based Exotica Playa Resort and the Celadon Green Island Hotel Danang,” Stoll said.

“In 2010, we can see many optimistic signals, we will not only cooperate with local investors to develop high-quality projects, but also attract more investment capital from foreign investors,” he said.

Schröter said hotel developers with feasibility studies, long-term strategic plans and sound financial capability had not been much deterred regarding their hotel investments in Vietnam. “Most foreign developers we have spoken to have taken some corrective measures early on, created synergy effects between different projects and downsized project teams to reduce costs or rearranged the disbursement of funds,” he said.

According to Nguyen Van Thieu, vice chairman of Binh Thuan province’s Rang Dong Group, an overall look at Vietnam’s tourism development revealed many big opportunities to invest in. “The country’s economic development over the past few years has resulted in an increased demand for tourism, which can be seen in a trend that people have shifted from renting hotel rooms to buying villas or apartments at tourism areas,” Thieu said.

For example, according to Binh Thuan province’s Department of Culture, Sports and Tourism, over the past five years, the number of tourism projects in Phan Thiet has increased by 25-30 per cent annually, while the city’s tourism turnover has increased by more than 30 per cent per year.

Schröter said Vietnam had a large demand for quality accommodation on international standards. Hotspots for hotel investments remain in his view include Hanoi, Quang Binh, Quang Nam, Ba Ria-Vung Tau, Ho Chi Minh City, Phu Quoc and other regions.

“I believe some markets will reach saturation in 2015-2018, like the major cities of Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City. But we will still see strong demand for especially three- to four-star luxury hotels. Hanoi, for instance, will have five new four- to five-star hotels coming on the market in 2010,” he said.

He predicted that during 2015-2018, many locally-owned and managed mid-scale hotels and resorts would go through a process of change, either be restructured and upgraded, franchised and operated by international brands or sold.

“We will also see a continuing strong demand for hotel developments of international standard three- to five-star properties in secondary and tertiary locations of Vietnam, for example at provincial capitals near industrial zones, ecological resorts and mixed use developments at beach destinations,” Schröter said.

However, South Pacific Travel Company director Nguyen Xuan Thuy said though investors were returning to the market attracted by lower prices, additional liquidity and a more stable economic environment, improvements to Vietnam’s infrastructure, investment regulations and the visa system would also attract more investment.

“The most important thing is that local developers have to professionalise the planning, development, management and marketing of their hotel properties. I think that unique concepts, strong brand image, professional management and customer service orientation will be crucial in this regard,” she said.

Schröter also said developers should seek professional advice for feasibility studies and conduct detailed market analysis, carefully check location, infrastructure and market access. “Investment decisions based on tax incentives, for example, are not wise if hotel developers cannot bring guests to their hotels because of the lack of infrastructure,” he said.

VietNamNet/VIR

Labour market offers bizarre paradoxes

Togo.vn News - Will local workers grasp employment opportunities this year through enterprises’ rebounding demand for labour? Hanoi Knitting Joint Stock Company, specialised in making assorted socks and stockings, recently began operations at a new location in the capital’s Phu Dien commune. As the firm started operations with a satisfied grin, many of the company’s leadership [...]

A platform for economic growth

The outlook for 2010 offers a chance to create momentum for high economic growth in the next few years. Looking back in 2009, what do you think was the government’s major success in managing the economy?

In my view, the major success of the government’s economic management is its quick response to the global economic crisis. During the fourth session of the 12th National Assembly [that took place in October and November in 2008], the socio-economic development plan for 2009 was approved.

However, we quickly adjusted the overall economic targets in December, 2008 as there were signs of a slowdown in the domestic economy. The global economy was sinking into recession and this would, of course, have negative impacts on our economy.

In particular, the government issued Resolution 30/2008/NQ-CP on adjusting economic growth targets. The targets were changed from reining in inflation to preventing an economic slowdown. This quick response to the fluctuation in the world economy and the drastic measures the government took, helped keep our economy out of recession. These decisions also contributed to keep our economic growth at 5.32 per cent for 2009.

But, would you agree that the economy still has problems that need to be resolved?

I would agree that some economic issues were not resolved in 2009. At first the implementation of the government’s stimulus package was good. But, several administrative procedures caused problems in the implementation of the package in some areas.

Secondly, the disbursement of funds for foreign direct invested projects, government bond-funded and official development assistance-funded projects progressed slowly, despite the implementation of measures designed to speed this up.

Thirdly, administrative procedures in areas such as customs are still complicated and create problems for businesses. We must try to resolve these issues this year.

How do you think the economy will perform in 2010?

I think the economy in 2010 will be better than 2009. The National Assembly has set a growth target of 6.5 per cent, but I hope we will beat this target. If we succeed, conditions in 2011 will be better. Higher economic growth will also create momentum for our socio-economic development plan for 2011-2015.

We have two important duties this year. These include meeting our development targets and restructuring the economy. We need to successfully implement our development plan for 2006-2010 and prepare for the implementation of the next five-year socio-economic development plan. We also need to work on the socio-economic development strategy during 2011-2020.

Our development aims need, therefore, to dovetail with our work in restructuring the economy. If we want higher economic growth, we must focus on restructuring the economy.

The Ministry of Planning and Investment (MPI) has drawn up a proposal to restructure the economy, can you tell us more about this?

We have submitted the plan to the Prime Minister and we are awaiting his comments. In the proposal we pointed out the main problems in the economy. In fact, this is a continuous part of our process of reform. The main purpose of the project is to review and assess the state of the economy so that we can then pinpoint what needs to be changed or restructured.

What are the big problems pointed out in the MPI’s restructuring plan?

Our plan points out three major problems that need to be fixed soon. First, if we want to change the structure of the economy, we have to first build a solid foundation. This foundation must be based on making a breakthrough in market institutions.

Specifically, we must finish constructing market institutions with a socialist orientation. However, these must tie in with our World Trade Organization commitments and our continuing integration into the global economy. The market institutions must be structured to allow state management of the organisations and areas vital to improving Vietnam’s socio-economic development.

Another big problem we face in Vietnam is a lack of good infrastructure. We have to keep improving the quality of our infrastructure to meet the demand for development. Vietnam is also facing a big problem in regard to the quality of human resources. It is essential for us to quickly raise the ratio of well-trained workers so to serve the growth of the local business community as well as the economy.

What specific changes need to be made in each sector of the economy in the coming time?

Certainly, during the restructuring process specific measures need to be taken for each economic sector. For instance, when we make changes in the industrial sector we have to focus on the development of hi-tech industry. However, we will still develop labour-intensive industries.

In the agriculture sector, we will focus on products that have competitive advantages and are export-oriented. The improvements in the agriculture sector will be in terms of quantity and quality. Improving productivity in this sector will help lift the living standards of farmers.

The service sector also needs to be improved. But, it is important to pay particular attention to value-added services such as finance, banking and telecommunications.

VietNamNet/VIR

With risks come big rewards

Vietnam’s stock markets are expected to offer investors numerous rich rewards in 2010 despite some dark clouds on the horizon. Vietnam’s equities markets ended a difficult 2009 with the VN-Index surging 56.8 per cent on-year, becoming one of the world’s best performing indexes.

Looking ahead, market analysts may claim 2010 will be another good year for the stock market as an economic recovery apparent. Given the achievements of 2009, there are significant growth potentials for the domestic economy and stock market in 2010.

Economists have forecasted Vietnam’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate this year could reach 6.5-7 per cent, fuelled by domestic consumption and export recoveries, and inflation at approximately 8-9 per cent. Pham Thanh Thai Linh, Bao Viet Securities Company’s (BVSC) chief equities strategist, said that fiscal and monetary policies in 2010 would aim to stabilise the economy, creating favourable conditions for enterprises.

“Once the domestic economy stabilises and picks up, the stock market, the barometer of the health of the economy, will have the conditions for development,” Linh told VIR. Linh said besides economic prospects, the equities market could also be supported by policy changes from the market watchdog State Securities Commission, including regulations on margin trading, T+2 transactions and intraday trading. Such policy changes will open a new stage in development of Vietnam’s stock market, narrowing the gap with other regional stock markets.

“Given the above-mentioned elements, we hold the view that 2010 could be a year without such strong economic development as seen in 2009 but the economy will be more stable and steadily recovers,” said Linh.

Josephine Yei Pheck Joo, Ho Chi Minh City-based SaigonBank Berjaya Securities’ chief executive officer, viewed 2010 a challenging year because the horizon was uncertain. Inflation, trade deficit, currency instability and foreign exchange market pressures were reportedly big concerns.

“The VN-Index may not move much as compared to 2009, particularly if lending is limited and inflation is a concern,” said Joo, adding that Vietnam’s stock market was still too small due to low liquidity for major foreign institutional investments. “But initial public offerings would continue as the world’s economy recovered.”

Thang Long Securities Company’s deputy general director Quach Manh Hao said that after a year of loose monetary policies and cheap money pumped into the economy, the government wanted to keep its money supply and credit growth at a modest level. “The cautious monetary policies should cause liquidity concerns in the first half of the year and thus we see a gloomy picture for stock market performances in the first half of 2010,” said Hao.

Hao said while 2010 might be another good year for equities, Vietnam’s market was more about investors’ psychologies and money flows. “The government has implemented several good policies regarding interest and exchange rates which will benefit the economy. We thus believe that the second half of 2010 should be much better than the first.”

Linh said inflation would rise and be more uncertain in 2010 relative to 2009. “But, we believe it will still be under control. We expect the consumer price index to rise by 8-9 per cent in 2010 and the basic interest rate at the end of 2010 will reach 9-10 per cent.”

Linh said due to monetary tightening measures, investment inflows into the economy and the stock market would gradually contract. Nevertheless, he noted, the measures would not impact too heavily on the stock market because they would target economic stability. “This mechanism is necessary to protect the economy from the phenomenon of bubble assets and stabilise the market on its long-term uptrend,” he said.

Joo argued inflation would not be nearly as extreme as 2008 and global commodity prices would not go back to levels seen in 2008.

“Nevertheless, the tightening of monetary policies is needed to control credit system growth and stabilise the economy in the long run. It is a painful decision, but a right and beneficial one for the country,” Joo said.

For investors, particularly retail ones, he said, 2010 might not be an easy year to enjoy rewards. “My suggestion is to keep cash. There are always investment opportunities available. Investing needs discipline and an understanding of the macro-economy and the micro-economy of the stock invested.

“Take profits whenever a particular stock giving a return outperforms the market or other stocks. One can never buy at the lowest and sell at the highest point.” Linh believed investors with a clear investment strategy and medium or long-term view would achieve good results in 2010. “Besides holding a medium and long-term vision, investors should combine flexible portfolio restructuring by switching to leading market sectors in each development phase of the VN-Index,” Linh noted.

Hao said market trends were more important than any specific stock picking and so the right decision at right time was the rule of success, but caution was needed in the first half of 2010.

“Safe investing means investors should focus on highly-liquid stocks and limiting the use leveraging for investments. Investors should follow trends, rather than bet money in any situation they are not confident with,” Hao added.

VietNamNet/VIR

Restaurants and bars doing well from year-end parties

Togo.vn News -  If your business follows the trend of booking bars or restaurants for an end of year bash – then be prepared to pay a lot. Hung, an office worker for an export-import company, has been busy all this week trying to find a bar to hold a New Year’s Eve party for his company. “I have only just been told to find a place for the party. I’ve been searching for 2 days but all restaurants have been booked up”, Hung complained.

It is now the fashion to hold New Year’s Eve party at restaurants or pubs. However, it is not easy to find a good place while the demand is very high in pre-Tet days. Thuc from Thuan Phat Company said that it’s better to book seats at least one month in advance.

The pubs or restaurants which have large capacity, good lightening and stereo systems for are the first choices for clients. Van Tue, Phu Dong, Lang Ngoi and Nha Hang Sen have been reportedly booked up with most of the orders from office workers.

Van Tue restaurant at

136 Ho Tung Mau Street
, for example, which has a capacity of 2,000 seats,  now has only a few room left. Mrs. Mui, Van Tue’s manager, said that most of the seats in the restaurant had been booked since February. Tinh, Phu Dong restaurant’s manager, also claimed clients will have no chance to book good seats with beautiful view if they contact restaurants after the 15th of  Lunary Year (January 28, 2010).

According to restaurant owners, days from December 25th (February 8) to December 29th (February 12) of lunar calendar are the time when restaurants are most crowded. Many restaurants even have to charge clients for rooms. Ms. Hoa, a worker of Tre Viet restaurant on

Hoang Cau Street
, said that if customers stay for over two and half an hours, they will be charged for occupying the next customers’ seats.

Exorbitant price

It’s clear that year-end is always a golden time for restaurants.

Ms. Huyen, an office worker of Hanoi Telecom Company, who booked seats at Seoul restaurant on

33 Tran Hung Dao Street
commented that it’s very difficult to find a place that not only serves good food but also suits everyone’s pockets. Learning from last year’s experience, she had checked prices at many restaurants before making a decision. And she had to do this one month earlier to make sure to have the most suitable price.

Restaurants like Van Tue, Phu Dong, Lang Ngoi, Sen or Quan Ngon charge 120,000 dong to 350,000 dong per customer, 700,000 dong to 1.5 million dong for a party table for six.

These prices don’t include drinks. The costs for drinks are different in each restaurant, but they are all higher than normal prices.

For instance, a can of soft drink which costs only 7,000 to 10,000 dong on the market can be charged at 15,000-30,000 dong by restaurant owners. A bottle of Hanoi beer is charged 20,000 dong instead of 12,000 dong, a bottle of Heniken beer 30,000 dong while the market price is 20,000 dong, while customers have to pay 80,000 dong for a small-sized bottle of Hanoi Vodka instead of 50,000 dong.

Many customers buy drinks from markets and then bringing them into restaurants. However, restaurants still charge a fee on drinks brought from outside.

At Van Tue restaurant, the fee depends on the strength. If the wine has a high concentration, it is charged 15% of the basic price or even 30% at some other places. The fee for beer is 7,000 dong a bottle, dinner wine and wine which has low concentration of alcohol are charged 70,000 to 100,000 dong a bottle.

Ngoc, ex-manager of Pho Bien restaurant, said that these “fees” are service fees, including opening bottles, pouring wine, borrowing glasses.

Thi Mai

Dollar price rises before Tet

VietNamNet Bridge – The dollar price on the black market unexpectedly increased sharply on February 11, just two days before Tet. Ha Trung street in Hanoi, which is considered a free market for foreign currency was so crowded on February 11 that there was a danger the parked motorbikes outside would further spill onto the streets and cause traffic jams.

Most of clients came to purchase dollar.

The dollar price set by gold shops was very high at 19,600 dong per dollar, while it was 19,300-19,350 dong per dollar yesterday. Bigger shops set higher price at 19,700 dong per dollar.

However, strangely thing was that the dollar price at which gold shops purchased from clients remained unchanged at 19,300 dong per dollar.

A client told the gold shop owner that he needed 15,000 dollar and asked for some discount. However, the owner refused to give discount even with such a big sum of money, saying that the dollar supply was short today.

In fact, gold shops were crowded, but only few transactions were made. Only those, who really needed dollar for paying debts or for traveling, purchased dollars today. Meanwhile, people were not buying dollars just to hoard.

In HCM City, according to VnExpress newspaper, the dollar price quoted by gold shops in Ben Thanh Market area, exceeded the 19,600 dong per dollar threshold this early afternoon.

There were very few dollar transactions. Most clients were surprised when they were told the high prices. A gold shop owner in Ben Thanh Market area told a client: “The dollar price has just moved up. You should buy dollars right now, or the price will go up further this afternoon”.

However, gold shop owners themselves dared not purchase dollar from clients at high prices.

Trung, the owner of a gold shop in Binh Thanh District, said that many individuals offered to sell dollars at 19,600-19,700 dong per dollar, reasoning the higher interbank exchange rate. However, since gold shop owners are not sure about the exchange rate tendency, they do not dare to take dollars at high prices

The dollar price offered by commercial banks has increased more sharply than the free market. Vietcombank, the biggest foreign currency trading bank in Vietnam, yesterday quoted the price at 18,469-18,479 dong per dollar. Meanwhile, on the morning of February 11, it quoted prices at 18,495-18,880 dong per dollar (purchase and sale). At 11 am of the same day, the rates were raised to 18,595-19,000 dong per dollar. The dong/dollar exchange rate quoted by the state owned Bank for Investment and Development of Vietnam was 18,650-19,050 dong per dollar.

The State Bank of Vietnam this morning raised interbank exchange rates by 3.4 percent. It has also released the decision to set a cap on the interest rate of businesses’ deposits at one percent.

The decision by the central bank was really a surprise to both commercial banks and businesses. Sources said the move was approved by the Government late yesterday afternoon before it was announced at 9 pm.

Governor of the State Bank of Vietnam Nguyen Van Giau said that the bank decided to make the adjustment on a pre-Tet day when it saw favorable market conditions. The dollar supply has become more profuse after big conglomerates sold dollars to banks, while overseas remittance is also satisfactory.

Giau said that the decision on foreign currency trading band and interbank exchange ratse made in late November 2009 has brought good effects, but Vietnam still needs more remedies to control trade deficit and stimulate export.

VietNamNet/VNE

Give guests royal treatment and investors will flow to Tien Giang

Togo.vn News – Tien Giang province, is looking for external investors after it put $10.6 billion into developing facilities for business.

Now, in 2010, Tien Giang hopes to successfully attract 20 percent of the investment capital it is calling for.

Nguyen Duy Quoc Tung, deputy chairman of Vinh Long Seafood Company, said that he came to the investment promotion conference to seek to understand about the investment incentives for energy production. However, the investor still could not get more information about the field.

Deputy Minister of Planning and Investment Dang Huy Dong said that the question his ministry always receives from investors is “which fields do you want us to invest in?”. Therefore, Dong said, carrying out administrative reforms also means introducing investment projects with all the requisite information needed by potential investors.

Dong cited a typical example to show the effect of good information. A Japanese investor, after receiving good information about a project in the north with initial investment capital of 230 million dollar, successfully persuaded the parent group in Japan to make an investment in the project with a capital of 450 million dollar.

Give royal treatment to guests, and investors will come

Tung from Vinh Long Seafood Company said that his company plans to invest in a biological oil factory that makes recreation energy in Tien Giang. The project is expected to cost tens of millions of dollars. Tung said that his company will consider tax incentives, procedures and clean land fund in Tien Giang to decide whether to invest here. However, he stressed that the treatment of the province will play an important role in the investor’s decision.

“I think that government agencies in Tien Giang need to establish good relations with investors to make them think that Tien Giang really is the place the investors want,” Tung said.

Deputy Minister of Planning and Investment Dang Van Dong noted that the site clearance and clean land fund will also be the important factors for investors to consider. The land fund in industrial and commercial hubs of HCM City, Ba Ria-Vung Tau and Binh Duong is running out. Therefore, Tien Giang will become the new destination for a new wave of investment.

According to Thai Van Xuan, investment director of Phuong Trang Transport Services and Real Estate, his company wants to invest in two industrial zones of Gia Thuan and Binh Dong. However, defining land prices for compensating for site clearance remains a problem. Xuan said that local authorities need to set up reasonable policies to help investors and people reach a common voice in the issue.

The Prime Minister in 2009 approved the master plan on socio-economic development of Tien Giang from now till 2020 to create a foundation for the province to become a developed socio-economic locality which can make its contribution to the development of the Mekong Delta.

Khanh Vy

BUSINESS IN BRIEF 11/2

Trades slow to pre-Tet trickle; BIDV Insurance Co prepares initial public offering for June; Pha Rung Shipyard transfers vessel to Italian firm Buyers crowded Saigon Jewelry Holding Company ‘s headquarters in Ho Chi Minh City Wednesday morning after Vietnam’s largest gold firm, known as SJC, announced cheaper prices that undercut all competitors.

Gold was listed VND25.45 million (US$1,378) per tael at SJC compared to around VND25.7 million at other local shops.

Experts attributed the cheap prices to the latest decision by the State of Bank Vietnam, which allows SJC import unlimited amounts of gold to help stabilize the domestic market.

SJC, Vietnam’s largest gold trader, is the only company enjoying the support and has just imported Vietnam’s first gold from overseas since June 2008, said central bank Governor Nguyen Van Giau said.

Four tons of gold imported by SJC had arrived at a customs warehouse and would be cut soon after official procedures were completed, an SJC deputy general director said on Tuesday.

Thanks to the cheaper prices, SJC is expected to trade 20,000-30,000 taels on average per day this week.

However, the increasing demand boosted the company’s gold prices to VND25.8 million per tael by 10.30 a.m. the same day.

A gold company director who requested anonymity warned that the state support could give SJC a monopoly on the market.

VietNamNet/VNA, TN

Canned fruit, vegetable exports increase

Togo.vn News – Exports of canned and frozen fruit and vegetables have increased significantly since the beginning of the year. “Compared with last December, recent orders for canned pineapple, corn, beans and frozen mango have increased by 20 per cent at my companies,” said Huynh Quang Dau, Director of the An Giang Agricultural Technology Service Company.

Dau explained that because the EU and the US were both in the middle of their winters, their demands for frozen and canned foods had increased strongly.

To meet the increasing demand, Dau’s plants have upped their production by 15 per cent to 20 tonnes of frozen and canned vegetables per day.

The country’s total export turnover of fruit and vegetables in the first month of the year was US$32 million, a 2.2 per cent increase over the same month last year.

While frozen exports have enjoyed many positive business results, companies involved in exporting fresh fruit and vegetables are facing many challenges.

“Fresh fruit and vegetable exports have never seen the kinds of difficulties they are seeing now,” said Nguyen Duc Nam, director of the Sai Gon Fruit and Vegetable Export Import Company.

“In January, we exported only about 10 tonnes of fresh fruit and vegetables to Canada and to countries in the EU,” Nam said, adding that this number was much lower than the same period last year.

Overall, demand for fresh vegetables from Vietnamese overseas have reduced.

“Demand for dragon fruit in the US has not remained stable and actually reduced since the beginning of 2010,” said Tran Ngoc Hiep, director of the Binh Thuan Dragon Fruit Company.

Transportation costs have contributed to the reduction in demand for vegetable exports.

According to Dau, transportation costs have increased the vegetable export price by 5 per cent.

Last year, Viet Nam earned $431 million from fruit and vegetable exports, an increase of 6.1 per cent over 2008.

Recently, Vietnamese fruit and vegetables have been exported to 20 markets, including mainland China, Taiwan, Japan, Singapore, Russia, Germany, Australia, some EU countries and others.

VietNamNet/Viet Nam News

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